FluAid, FluSurge, Epiflex, Los Alamos, NIGMS and others

Other exercises and evidence-based simulations or estimates

The following projects, products or research programs could contribute starting-point or within-game actuarials -- e.g., infection rates, effects of quarantine, etc.

  • CDC’s FluAid and FluSurge  These applications are indispensible, as the models provide for numerous parameters, optionally at the county or city level, including the potential number of deaths, hospitalizations, and outpatient visits for two scenarios:  1968-type (moderate) 1918-type (severe) scenarios.
  • Epiflex Object-oriented Monte Carlo system for simulating spread of infection.
  • Los Alamos Supercomputer Model Germann, Kadau, Longini, Macken8 and Cooper  model the probable effects of different strategies, taking into account a projected 90% quarantine, and various strategies and assumptions for targeted prophylaxis, contact tracing, and distribution center capacities.
  • IGMS Thailand Simulations Two separate studies simulated the path of a human avian flu outbreak in Thailand, using detailed data for Thailand, such as population densities, household sizes, age distribution, and distances traveled to work.  Related work at this agency includes upcoming MIDAS models.
  • Navy Agent-Based Modeling Tool for Medical Department Shipboard Use This tool is expected to have a “game-based interface.”  This project could provide insight into relatively "closed-system" health facilities, possibly including rural clinics within limited supply chain alternatives.
  • US War College. A workshop with 100 participants considered a pandemic influenza outbreak transmitted to residents of Johnstown, PA by a boy who acquired the virus during a vacation in Japan. Simulation included effects upon the military, including law enforcement augmentation, vaccine and food distribution, coordination, Title 10, Title 32 (National Guard) legal issues. 
  • Montgomery County Clinic Planning Model Generator The CPMG software model is designed to help public health agencies evaluate and make adjustments to their POD plans. Built on data from a smallpox exercise and other biological agent POD exercises, it has been used to model a pandemic influenza scenario.
News
2009-09-10 U.S. Colleges Report Rise in 'Flu-like' Illness
U.S. colleges in the Midwest and Southeast are already reporting flu-like illnesses, though the school year has scarcely begun. Most have not tested for H1N1, but most reported cases are likely to be attributable to the 2009 "swine flu."
2009-06-12 Search PubMed Pandemic Flu Research Listings
The NIH maintains a list of related research publications relevant to public health planning for pandemic influenza.
2009-06-12 It's Official: Pandemic Phase 6 Reached
The UN's World Health Organization announced on 11 June 2009 that it had raised the H1N1 outbreak to pandemic phase 6.
2009-04-29 WHO Raises Alert Level to V
The WHO raised its pandemic flu alert to Phase V on April 29, 2009.
2009-04-27 Guardian Reviews UK's 2007 Pandemic Flu Plan
As part of its swine flu coverage, highlighted by the revelation on the same day that two UK citizens were confirmed to have contracted the disease, the Guardian reviewed the British government's pandemic flu contingency plan.
More news…
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