The Northwestern project uses a computer model to simulate the time course of the H1N1 outbreak in the U.S. The simulations "yield projections and risk assessments of the epidemic outbreak in a worst case scenario, in which no containment measures are taken to mitigate the spread.  However, the model is updated frequently to reflect new information on "confirmed cases and more precise information on the transmissibility and disease-specific parameters."  This model attempts to model pandemic spread down to the county.

This project is run by the Brockmann Group (Dr. Dirk Brockmann).

This team reported that their results track favorably with the predictions of the GLeAM model (as of April 29, 2009).

The mobility component for the ESAM model was obtained by investigating the geographic circulation of dollar bills in the U.S.