Influenza Prediction Market launched
Citing delays of 1-2 weeks in the CDC's current influenza surveillance operations, an Influenza Prediction Market service hopes to improve predictions and hence public health preparations.
Funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the new
Influenza Prediction Market operates similar to other futures trading,
such as corn futures. Health care workers with information about
influenza activity are given a grant of $100 with which to "trade." The
value of this grant/share will increase or decrease over time. The
price at which trades take place represents the consensus belief about
the likelihood of that level of activity. For example, if the price for
a week was 90 cents, this can be interpreted to mean that the market
expects influenza to be widespread with 90% probability.
According to the University of Iowa's site where the market is described, "our future plans also include opening an avian influenza market."
Metrics Matter