Influenza Prediction Market launched

Citing delays of 1-2 weeks in the CDC's current influenza surveillance operations, an Influenza Prediction Market service hopes to improve predictions and hence public health preparations.

Influenza Prediction Market (logo)Funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the new Influenza Prediction Market operates similar to other futures trading, such as corn futures. Health care workers with information about influenza activity are given a grant of $100 with which to "trade." The value of this grant/share will increase or decrease over time. The price at which trades take place represents the consensus belief about the likelihood of that level of activity. For example, if the price for a week was 90 cents, this can be interpreted to mean that the market expects influenza to be widespread with 90% probability.

According to the University of Iowa's site where the market is described, "our future plans also include opening an avian influenza market."

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