Strategy Redux: Nothing New Since 1918?
An October 2006 workshop at NIH featured reports from medical historians about strategies employed during the 1918 pandemic. Upshot? Use the same strategies again.
2006-10-28 An NPR report reported on an NIH workshop featuring medical historians who had researched strategies that seemed to work during the 1918 pandemic. The report highlighted strategies employed then, including school closures, home quarantines and cancellation of public events.
Survey results also reported at the NIH session indicated that 9 of 10 Americans claim they would comply with a quarantine, but this leaves serious doubt as to whether this is feasible in a highly interdependent, networked society. Because the illness can run a relatively long course, and because some smaller employers may close entirely for extended periods, there is a question as to how long people can go without a paycheck. With many families having two working parents -- more than in 1918 -- school closures will have widespread effects.Nonetheless, it's clear that a simulation must cover these three basic public health strategies of school and public event closures, and home quarantines. Detailed models of these strategies appear to be lightly covered in the simulation literature.
Haddon Matrix for Strategy Evaluation
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